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Course Description Course Name : Probability Models and Simulation Course Code : EMG28 704 Course Type : Compulsory Level of Course : Second Cycle Year of Study : 1 Course Semester : Spring (16 Weeks) ECTS : 5 Name of Lecturer(s) : Asst.Prof.Dr. MERTDEMİRCİOĞLU Learning Outcomes of the Course : To be able to learn what probability and distributions mean. To be able to make an application of Markov Chain method for daily life problems. To be able to learn how to create a simulation model and how to interpret model results. Mode of Delivery : Distant Prerequisites and Co-Prerequisites : None Recommended Optional Programme Components : none Aim(s) of Course : This course aims to explain probability models and fundamentals of simulation. It helps to make an application by using simulation models for daily life problems and teach how to interpret model results. Course Contents : It gives information about probability, distributions, Markov Chain and simulation models. Language of Instruction : Turkish Work Place : Online   Course Outline /Schedule (Weekly) Planned Learning Activities Week Subject Student's Preliminary Work Learning Activities and Teaching Methods 1 Introduction to Probability Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 2 Discrete Distributions Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 3 Continuous Distributions Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 4 Markov Chains Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 5 Markov Chains Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 6 Fundamentals of Simulation Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 7 Fundamentals of Simulation Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 8 Midterm Exam Exam Preparation Exam Preparation 9 Numeric Production Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 10 Queing Theory Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 11 Queing Theory Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 12 Simulation Models Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 13 Simulation Models Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 14 Monte Carlo Simulation Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 15 Monte Carlo Simulation Reading the given materials Presentation and Discussion 16/17 Final Exam Exam Preparation Exam Preparation   Required Course Resources Resource Type Resource Name Recommended Course Material(s)  Fikri Öztürk, Levent Özbek, 2004, "Matematiksel Modelleme ve Simülasyon", Ankara, 1. baskı  Niqel Gilbert, Klaus Troitzich,2005, "Simulation for the Social Scientist", Open University Press; 2 edition Required Course Material(s)  Reuven Y. Rubinstein, Dirk P. Kroese, 2007, "Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method", Wiley-Interscience; 2 edition   Assessment Methods and Assessment Criteria Semester/Year Assessments Number Contribution Percentage     Mid-term Exams (Written, Oral, etc.) 1 60     Homeworks/Projects/Others 0 40 Total 100 Rate of Semester/Year Assessments to Success 40   Final Assessments 100 Rate of Final Assessments to Success 60 Total 100   Contribution of the Course to Key Learning Outcomes # Key Learning Outcome Contribution* 1 The ability to list, describe and explain the relationship between the terms which belong to production management and numerical methods 5 2 The ability to explain how to create the basic theoretical models of business and new management in literature and how to implement numarical and statistics methods. 5 3 The ability to determine proper methods for solving problems 4 4 The ability to apply the basic steps of business admiinistration 4 5 The ability to use the basic techniques of basic statistical analysis to achieving the best result. 5 6 The ability to take responsibility as an indivicual and/or as a part of a team, can lead and work effectively. 3 7 In recognition of the need for lifelong learning and continuous self-renewal tracking the latest developments in his/her field. 3 8 The ability to list,describe the basic theoretical models of business administration, and explain the aim of usage of the models; indicate the strenghts and weaknesses parts of each model and/or methods 5 9 The ability to use of different sources under the rules of the academic, synthesize the information obtained in a new field of business administration and present effectively 4 10 The ability to practice and evaluate methods if it is needed, to develop and implement new ways of working. 3 11 The abiliity to research on the science of business administration, to form the basis for the decision-making process. 5 12 The ability to determine the business manaement approaches, application and methods which are appropriate for the business’s sector, growth, resources, culture, goals and aims. 4 * Contribution levels are between 0 (not) and 5 (maximum).   Student Workload - ECTS Works Number Time (Hour) Total Workload (Hour) Course Related Works     Class Time (Exam weeks are excluded) 14 3 42     Out of Class Study (Preliminary Work, Practice) 14 3 42 Assesment Related Works     Homeworks, Projects, Others 0 0 0     Mid-term Exams (Written, Oral, etc.) 1 20 20     Final Exam 1 20 20 Total Workload: 124 Total Workload / 25 (h): 4.96 ECTS Credit: 5